Tracker ● Phase B · scaffolded
Refi Take-Out Failure Rate
Percentage of bridge loans that fail their first agency take-out attempt. By lender, TTM. Quarterly update.
Phase B
Live data ingest begins with Phase B's pipeline. This page shows the methodology and the most recent operator-grade reading on file.
Most recent reading
23.1%
As of 15 May 2026 · n=47 term sheets · weekly
Coverage that informs this tracker
- take outs May 15, 2026
Why Agency Take-Out Failed on 23% of 2025 Bridges
A quarter of bridge loans originated in 2024–2025 did not exit cleanly into agency financing. Here is what broke, and how to design against it.
- postmortems May 15, 2026
Postmortem: A 47-Unit Phoenix Deal That Died at Refi
A composite case study of a 1980s-vintage Maricopa County deal where the bridge math worked on paper and failed in execution — specifically at the agency take-out gate. The numbers tell the story.
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Anonymized LOI submissions become the spread tracker, draw-friction index, and take-out failure data. How we anonymize →
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